Forecasting Box-Office Revenue by Considering Social Network Services in the Korean Market

Authors

  • Taegu Kim Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Korea
  • Jungsik Hong Department of Industrial and Information System Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 139-743, Korea
  • Hoonyoung Koo School of Business, Chungnam National University, 99 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-764

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11113/sh.v64n2.47

Keywords:

Social network service, bass, regression

Abstract

The Korean movie market is an extremely dynamic market. Social network services are also rapidly growing in Korea and comments on movies in social network services (SNS) are increasingly influencing the movie industry. In this paper, we address the issue of forecasting box-office revenue by considering the comments on movies in SNS. We analyze the data in the Korean movie market by using regression analysis and the Bass diffusion model. Our results show that the number of screens is the only significant variable before release, whereas positive and negative mentions on SNS are also essential after release. In addition, the hybrid method provides the idea of employing SNS data into diffusion models for obtaining effective forecasting results.

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Published

2013-08-15

How to Cite

Kim, T., Hong, J., & Koo, H. (2013). Forecasting Box-Office Revenue by Considering Social Network Services in the Korean Market. Sains Humanika, 64(2). https://doi.org/10.11113/sh.v64n2.47

Issue

Vol. 64 No. 2: Special Edition

Section

Articles

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